Southampton looks for a win after quite a dry spell as they host Watford this Saturday afternoon at St. Mary’s Stadium.

Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this matchup.

Dafabet Odds

Team to Win (Regular Time)

•Southampton FC: 2.15
•Draw: 3.52
•Watford FC: 3.57

Spread

•Southampton FC -0.5: 2.14
•Watford FC +0.5: 1.80

Total

•Over 2.5: 1.99
•Under 2.5: 1.91

Key Points to Consider

Last 6: Southampton, coming off a 2-2 road draw vs Arsenal, have 2 draws and 4 losses in their last six overall. Watford, coming off a 0-3 home loss vs Burnley, have 3 losses, 1 win and 2 draws in their last 6.

Some Numbers: Despite having the second-most losses in the league, Southampton’s defense has been relatively solid. They are No. 4 in the league in clearances, and No. 4 in the league in tackles. Definitely a sign they are attacked early and often, but at least there’s some resistance.

Head-to-Head: These two sides last matched up in Premier League action on April 23, 2019 when they finished in a 1-1 draw. They have finished in a 1-1 draw their last two matchups in the Prem.

Projected Leaders

Gerard Lazaro has a 25-to-26 percent chance to score for Watford. He averages 2.21 shots overall per sim, 0.89 shots on goal per and 0.30 goals per sim.

Danny Ings has a 49+ percent chance to score for Southampton. He averages 4.17 shots overall per sim, 1.75 shots on goal per and 0.68 goals per sim.

Analyst’s Pick

Southampton to win.

Odds indicate Southampton have a 46.5 percent chance of winning. They win close to 59 percent of simulations, suggesting quite a bit of added side value on the pick. This is a four-star (out of four) hot trend pick.

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