Following a mid-week road win in the Carabao Cup, Aston Villa gets set to host Burnley this Saturday at Villa Park.

Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this matchup.

Dafabet Odds

Team to Win (Regular Time)

•Aston Villa: 2.41
•Draw: 3.45
•Burnley FC: 3.08

Spread
•Aston Villa -0.5: 2.38
•Burnley FC +0.5: 1.65

Total
•Over 2.5: 1.96
•Under 2.5: 1.94

What to Watch For

Betting on the Draw: Odds indicate there’s a 29 percent chance this match ends in a draw. That happens in under 28 percent of simulations, suggesting no added side value on the pick. Definitely worth looking at, though, since close to a third of sims are still ending in a draw.

The projected score is 1.49 – 1.46, in favor of Burnley.

Last Week: Last time out, Villa came up short, 3-2, on the road vs Arsenal. They finished in a scoreless draw the matchup prior vs West Ham. Burnley will look to build off last week’s 2-0 home win vs Norwich.

Clean Sheets: Both sides have 2 clean sheets to their name so far this season.

Clearances/Saves: Villa are No. 4 in the league so far with 144 clearances. Burnley are No. 4 in the league with 23 saves.

Head to Head: These two sides last matched up in Premier League action back in 2015 when Burnley won, 1-0.

Projected Leaders

Ashley Barnes has a 43 percent chance to score for Burnley. He averages 2.32 shots overall per sim, 1.01 shots on goal per, and 0.56 goals per sim.

John McGinn has a 29 percent chance to score for the home side, Aston Villa. He averages 3.35 shots overall per sim, 1.34 shots on goal per and 0.35 goals per sim.

Analyst’s Pick

Burnley +0.5

Simulation data has more faith on the road team here than do odds-makers. Burnley wins more simulated matches than do Aston Villa, so we’ll gladly take the +0.5 here on the spread. The side value on Burnley is a four-star (out of four) hot trend pick.

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