Kylian Mbappé scored two goals as France beat Poland 3-1 in the Round of 16 on Sunday, while England defeated Senegal 3-0 to secure their place in the quarterfinals.
France will once again have AC Milan striker Olivier Giroud spearheading their attack. On Sunday, Giroud became France’s all-time leading scorer with his 52nd international goal, surpassing Arsenal legend Thierry Henry.
Kylian Mbappé is the main reason why France is favored, but they’re vulnerable, as Poland showed.
The player to watch in this game is Kylian Mbappé, who has 12 goals and two assists in 14 Ligue 1 games with Paris Saint-Germain this season. AccuScore gives a 43.5 percent chance to score against England. He had 52 SCA and 6 GCA in 14 Ligue 1 games with Paris Saint-Germain this season.
FBRef defines SCA as “the two offensive actions leading directly to a shot, such as passes, dribbles and drawing fouls.” GCA is “the two offensive actions leading directly to a goal, such as passes, dribbles and drawing fouls.” Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this matchup.
DafaNews Picks
Team to Win (Regular Time)
• England 3.30
• France 2.43
• Draw 3.40
Spread
• England 0, +0.5 (1.87)
• France 0, -0.5 (2.05)
Total
• Over 2.5 (2.05)
• Under 2.5 (1.85)
Key Points to Consider
Head-to-Head: These two teams last met in international friendly action on June 13, 2017 and France won 3-2.
Projected Leaders
For England, Harry Kane has a 48.4 percent chance to score. He averages 2.49 shots overall per sim, 1.6 shots on goal per and 0.66 goals per sim.
For France, Kylian Mbappé has a 43.5 percent chance to net the ball. He averages 2.76 shots overall per sim, 1.09 shots on goal per and 0.56 goals per sim.
Analyst’s Pick
England has been guilty of slow starts in all four of their World Cup games so far, and another one could be catastrophic, but they have enough quality to take the game to France. Winning the midfield battle with Jude Bellingham is a must for them.
Over 2.5 (2.05)
Three-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend pick on the total in this one. Average score in simulations is England 1.87 to France 1.4.
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