The Boston Celtics look to defend their home court when they host the Golden State Warriors in Game 4 of the NBA Finals on Friday. As usual, the Warriors made a furious comeback in the third quarter but the Celtics closed the game successfully and won 116-100.
Projected Starting Lineups and Roster
Boston Celtics
*Notates expected starter
C: Robert Williams III*, Daniel Theis
PF: Al Horford*, Grant Williams, Luke Kornet
SF: Jayson Tatum*, Aaron Nesmith, Sam Hauser
SG: Jaylen Brown*, Payton Pritchard, Nik Stauskas
PG: Marcus Smart*, Derrick White
Golden State Warriors
*Notates expected starter
C: Kevon Looney*, Jonathan Kuminga
PF: Draymond Green*, Juan Toscano-Anderson, Andre Iguodala
SF: Andrew Wiggins*, Otto Porter Jr., Nemanja Bjelica
SG: Klay Thompson*, Jordan Poole, Damion Lee
PG: Stephen Curry*, Gary Payton II, Moses Moody
DafaNews Picks
Team to Win (Regular Time)
• Golden State Warriors 2.36
• Boston Celtics 1.65
Spread
• Golden State Warriors +3.5 (1.91)
• Boston Celtics -3.5 (1.90)
Total
• Over 214.5 (1.93)
• Under 214.5 (1.88)
Betting Trends
The Celtics are:
• 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game
• 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game
• 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game
• 36-15 ATS in their last 51 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game
• 39-18-2 ATS in their last 59 games against a team with a winning straight up record
The Under is:
• 11-3 in Golden State’s last 14 games against a team with a winning straight up record
• 10-4 in Boston’s last 14 games against a team with a winning straight up record
• 7-4 in the last 11 meetings in Boston
• 20-9 in the last 29 meetings
Projected Leaders
For the Warriors, Stephen Curry is projected to finish with 25.7 points, 8.0 assists and 4.6 rebounds, making 8.1 field goals in 19.5 attempts.
For the Celtics, Jayson Tatum is expected to score 27.3 points with 7.8 rebounds and 5.2 assists, making 8.5 field goals in 19.3 attempts.
Keys to Game 4
The Warriors have too many weapons and when Stephen Curry and Jordan Poole make ridiculous shots, with range, they can demoralize their defense at the right time. Nobody is scarier with a lead than Stephen Curry. That said, outside of Curry, the Warriors lack consistent creation but as a team they are just so lethal because they score in bunches.
Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins bring a burst of athleticism, energy and scoring outside of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson to the Warriors. Curry, Thompson and Wiggins all showed up on Wednesday but Poole was a non-factor and Draymond Green really struggled. The Warriors need more from Poole and Green on offense if they want to win Game 4.
Poole had just 10 points in 24 minutes off the bench in Game 3 while Green finished with just two points, four rebounds and three assists in 35 minutes.
Draymond Green is celebrated as any top star in the league, at his core as a player he’s a high-level glue guy and most of his impact is actually eye test. Green has to be better than in Game 3, the Warriors need him to get at least 10 points, 10 rebounds and six assists.
The Celtics are the more complete team, the Warriors had big games from the Splash Brothers and Wiggins and still lost by 16 points, which is concerning. I anticipate that Boston’s depth, size and length will carry them on Friday.
Analyst’s Picks
Celtics -3.5 (1.90) and Under 214.5 (1.88)
Two-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend picks on the Warriors and the total in this one. Average score in simulations is Boston Celtics 106.5 to Golden State Warriors 103.
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